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From their website:
"The purpose of the Long Bets foundation is to improve long-term thinking.
Long Bets is a public arena for enjoyably competitive predictions, of interest to society, with philanthropic money at stake. The foundation furnishes the continuity to see even the longest bets through to public resolution. This website provides a forum for discussion about what may be learned from the bets and their eventual outcomes."
This is a fascinating concept. The basic idea is that you make a prediction that you think will come true some time in the future (2+ years), and your reasoning behind the prediction. Others bet against you, and explain why they disagree.
Bets may be time limited, such as "In a Google search of five keywords or phrases representing the top five news stories of 2007, weblogs will rank higher than the New York Times' Web site.". They can also be open-ended, as in "The first discovery of extraterrestrial life will be someplace other than on a planet or on a satellite of a planet."
Charities are designated by each bettor, and when a winner is determined the charity is given the money (plus interest).
Discussion is encouraged. You really should check this out.
Posted by Ted at October 3, 2003 11:10 AM